Some airports are regulated by imposing a ticket tax due to their unique competitive position. It had to be investigated whether this regulation still holds true when considering the inter- and intra-modal demand effects when revoking the ticket tax implemented. The reason for revoking the ticket tax is based on an extended high speed rail network which makes access / egress convenient to widely spread competitive airports and the increased competitive situation in the airline industry influencing the airport and route choice of travellers.

The ‘X-VIAP passenger’ approach was used to determine the passenger behaviour with focus on the inter- and intra-modal competition, namely the access / egress choice and the route and airport choice of air passengers within the aviation mode. To investigate the effects of a reversal of the ticket tax a scenario analysis has been performed.

The study consisted of 4 work packages and was assigned to a consortium. MKmetric was responsible for work package 3 and 4 and contributed to 1 and 2.

1. Detailed market and competition analysis of the German aviation market. Relevant international market participants were evaluated and relevant trends in aviation such as business strategies, technical advances, and activities of air carriers were evaluated with regards to their impact on the current development of the German aviation market. The analysis resulted in a number of proposed policy measures. These policy measures allow the Federal government to influence the current and future situation of the German, European, and international aviation markets. For the proposed policy measures, interdependencies were identified and on this basis a matrix of effects was developed. The combination of the effects matrix and a description of the German air traffic market provided a starting point for further analyses.
2. Economic evaluation of the German aviation market. The evaluation examined relevant correlations between the aviation market and the rest of the economy, the role and importance of the aviation market in mobility and logistics, as well as environmental effects of aviation.
3. Delineation of imminent development trends in the air transport industry and the implications for the future. The outcome represents the reference air transport development up to the year 2030 for air passenger and cargo transport. In the context of this task, air and surface feeder service networks were investigated (ferry was assigned to either the main modes rail or car depending on the services offered), analyzed and implemented according to the regionalization of the model system ‘X-VIA’. Multi-, intra- and inter-modality were considered for the reference case 2030. All transport activities from, to, within, and across Europe were reflected. Consistency to the base data of the existing federal master plan of Germany, such as socio-economy, infrastructure and transport interconnectivity, was ensured. The computations were executed by applying ‘SONARNetGen’. Multiple analyses, such as air transport demand, catchments, leakage, connectivity, accessibility, were executed for 28 German airports– ranging from less than 0.1 Mio. up to 60 Mio. Passengers per year – whilst competing airports along the national border and hubs located outside Germany were considered.
4. Based on the reference case several scenarios were developed. The policy measures identified in work package 1 were used to define which of the proposed policy measures would be necessary and feasible to match three pre-defined scenario targets. Advantages and disadvantages of the three investigated scenarios were also assessed. The scenario simulations were based on the ‘SONARNetGen’ modelling system considering multi-, intra- and inter-modal effects under consideration of different types of air carriers in the context of their cost structure and development strategy. The policy measures assessed covered a wide range from taxation, emission schemes, security, bilateral air service agreements, planning procedures, air traffic management, slot assignment, noise, and alternative fuels, to fees and charges. Economic effects resulting from the scenarios were investigated and analysed.

The project was executed based on the request of policy decision makers to deliver facts on the further development of the Polish air transport including potential investments into existing and new infrastructure.

The project was structured in four work packages whereby MKm was responsible for the second one consisting out of the ex ante forecast for the air transport market in Poland until 2035. This required air transport system wide forecasts using ‘SONARNetGen‘ whilst considering different aspects such as competition among national and foreign airports. Inter-modal effects and necessities when implementing new high speed rail services and road infrastructure linking the central hub airport in Poland to the regions were considered according to the infrastructure investment plan. The changes in the airline market structure in relation to three development strategies of the national carrier had been implemented as well. And finally three economic development options for the timeline 2010-2015-2025-2035 resulted in different demand scenarios.

Out of the permutation of these aspects a set of 18 scenarios had been selected for forecasting passenger and cargo transport for up to 21 airports. The forecasts considered the development of the Polish airports and the national carriers in parallel whilst taking into account the development of further 45 extra territorial competitors. The full report has been published.

On the basis of EU policy requirements a modular framework for the strategic policy assessment tool was developed. The tool consists of the following modules: Passenger Demand; Freight Demand; Demography; Economy & Resources; Vehicle Stock; Environment; and Safety. Each module is further divided into sub-modules. A Database is required to facilitate the data exchange between the modules, to provide exogenous input data for the modules and to store output data. Finally the user interface allows the operation of the model and provides access to assessment results in a user-friendly way. In 2017 the German Mobility Award was awarded to the project.

The project was assigned to a consortium. MKmetrics’ responsibility addressed the development of the model structure, data flows and model sensitivities in the light of transport policy measures. Furthermore the focus was on air transport modelling and assessment where a high level adaptation of the ‘X-VIA’ approach was used. Contributions were made throughout the project, software was tested and validated. It has to be noted that the data stock used is provided by ETISplus, a project of the European Commission where MKmetric provided all air service and passenger / cargo demand data as well as information related to air transport, covering inter-modal linkages.

On the basis of EU policy requirements a modular framework for the strategic policy assessment tool was developed, consisting of the Passenger Demand, Freight Demand, Demography, Economy & Resources, Vehicle Stock, Environment, and the Safety module. Each module is further divided into sub-modules. A Database is required to facilitate the data exchange between the modules, to provide exogenous input data for the modules and to store output data. Finally the user interface allows the operation of the model and provides access to assessment results in a user-friendly way. The project was assigned to a consortium. MKmetrics’ responsibility concerned the development of the model structure, data flows and model sensitivities in the light of transport policy measures. Furthermore the focus was on air transport modelling and assessment. Contributions were made throughout the project, software was tested and validated. It has to be noted that the data stock used is provided by ETISplus, a project of the European Commission where MKmetric contributed as well all supply and demand data and information related to air transport, covering as well inter-modal linkages.

European Transport Policy Makers have an on-going requirement for good quality information. This addresses data to support models, evaluation methodologies and indicator frameworks of the European Commission. Without information integration, the Commission lacks a consistent data source to investigate transport and policy measures.

MKm was responsible for all aviation related data covering infrastructure, service and demand data for passenger and cargo transport. The work performed addressed: exploitation of data collection barriers and solutions to overcome the data gap as well as the development of a concept; design of the data model; collection, validation, harmonisation, gap handling, implementation of data and information; demand and supply analyses; ex post forecasting; clearance to fill the data base for all modes (rail, road, ferry, air, inland waterway, deep sea).

The study provides comprehensive background related to the different implementations of the integrated ticketing at EU and international level. A further objective of the study is providing in-depth analysis of selected best practices of integrated ticketing schemes in order to highlight the main drivers and barriers. Strengths and weaknesses as well as opportunity and threats linked to the existing integrated ticketing solutions and their likely future development are highlighted. For each of them, the present study draws a set of observations and recommendations addressing the possible levels and actions for the EU-policy.

MKmetric developed a variety of cutting edge analysis for this airport.

1. A descriptive analysis of supply and demand was executed in respect to the socio-economic market environment of the airport. This encompassed as well competitor’s strengths.
2. The SONAR360° tool was used to determine the air passenger market potential diversified for different development strategies. This encompassed the identification and discussion of routes; passenger structure and distribution; technical information.
3. Long term forecast 2020, 2025, 2030 were made using the SONARNetGen tool considering the determinants of transport, access / egress by surface modes, and air traffic management information.
4. Implications for the airport were investigated addressing infrastructure capacity, regional accessibility, and travellers’ benefits.

The focus of the study concerned the investigation of increased engagement of the Gulf-carriers in Europe to elaborate the effects upon the German air transport system. The huge orders of long-haul aircraft launched by the Gulf carriers in combination with the high pressure of the Gulf nations for extensions of the existing air service agreements across Europe triggered the question about an impact assessment of a strong market presence of these airlines in Europe.

Especially for Germany a stronger engagement of the Gulf-carriers at other airports in Germany violates the catchment areas of the airports Dusseldorf (DUS), Hamburg (HAM), Frankfurt (FRA) and Munich (MUC) for originating traffic. The hub functionality of Frankfurt (FRA) and Munich (MUC) are challenged by new nonstop-services and redirected routings via the Gulf-hubs as well. The same situation relates for all other European states in that hubs are affected with the redirection of European passenger flows and their hub function being substituted by the Gulf-hubs. In return the accessibility of export dependent Germany is at risk when international air services have to be cut down reflecting the increased competition in aviation.

Under consideration of the existing fleet structure of all Gulf-carriers in 2012 and under assumption of an ongoing liberalization of the air transport policy the analyses of the local and transfer flows covered the following issues:

• potential development of the Gulf-carrier air networks,
• passenger volumes at German airports,
• passenger volumes on feeder flights from / to German airports,
• catchment of the German airports in focus,
• transfer connections volumes at the German airports in focus,
• shift of transfer traffic via German airports towards non-stop services,
• shift of transfer traffic via German airports towards routings via Gulf-hubs.

MKmetric and an airport allied and started a research co-operation for the development of air cargo transport. During the co-operation following projects were performed.

1. The targets for the first project concerned data gap handling and air cargo model validation. Both elements allow a transparent view upon the air cargo market to analyse the competitive situation as well as testing potential tactical and strategic ex post and ex ante scenarios. Another issue concerned the simulation of air transport politics such as night ban regulations or the emission fees. Furthermore the developed system allowed in detail the analysis of cargo flows and transshipments, determination of true origin / destination, routings and transshipment points, catchments and route competitors. Beside the analysis described the computation of scenarios for the airports’ decision makers build a substantial part of the project.
2. The second project addressed the development of a specific air cargo transport model for the airport to investigate supply side strategies and the development of routes.
3. The third project extended the modelling scope to cover more detailed effects of shippers, airlines and traders behaviour. In addition the markets were refined on the intercontinental base geographically and a validation on regional base took place down to producer and consumer level.
4. Finally the floor for a new air cargo strategy had been provided by outlining the true O&D-based cargo flows, a demand forecast and the investigation of volumes lost from the airports catchment to adjacent hubs as well as the leakage on transshipments. Several new routes had been identified, evaluated and meanwhile are inaugurated by airlines, whereby for some other routes service adjustment has been proposed and realized.

MKmetric focused on the determination of consumer sensitivity towards the characteristics of air service alternatives. The modelling of the problem enabled to make the consumers change of behaviour transparent and to take action on the supply side to attract demand on the airline specific supply.

Major analysis addressed the competition between different air services offered at one airport as well as air services competing from different airports to equal destinations (intra-modality). The model allows for the status quo situation to elaborate the existing competitive situation of the network or a single route the simulation of any future strategic, tactical and operational scenario (e.g. schedule variation, network strategies) as well as to determine gains and losses, competitive position and cannibalizations, or strategic investments while combining different airlines networks.

After successful implementation of the models and software at the clients premises and an intensive validation of the products quality additional services were ordered. This concerned a model extension to cover a larger set of competing air service alternatives allowing for a higher degree of hub traffic investigations. In addition a differentiation of time characteristics reflecting the slot sensitivity to a larger extent was requested. Furthermore the analyses interface was enriched to enhance the incorporation of the results into the existing work processes for network management, route planning and strategic development departments. Finally the system was set up for 20 computer independent user licenses.

The focus of the project was to perform passenger potential analyses for the airport to identify new economically viable routes comparing two scenarios reflecting different long term strategic directions for the two terminals in operation.

The analyses addressed the route specific passenger volumes differentiated by trip purpose, local and transfer passengers, their regional point of origination, and detailed information about each route. The latter concerned the implementation schedule, aircraft type and capacity, service frequency, operation day, and the airline to be approached. All markets have been considered with special focus on the transfer passenger share which was of high importance due to alternative routings via competing hubs and the reflection of network strategies of domestic and international carriers.

The project focused on the development of air transport networks for a set of five airports in the Baltic Sea region. Improved access to coastal regions of the South Baltic is a major task, which can be achieved by air transport.

As a consequence a comprehensive forecast of the passenger market potential for the airports of the partners involved was requested to be executed (SONAR360°) while understanding the market requirements and allowing for airline marketing to increase the regional accessibility. A core result was the identification of new flight connections among the project partner airports as well as to the world.

The project focused on the development of airports and economically viable air services in the North and East of Europe. Hereby the competition within the aviation sector was a prerequisite to be considered. The purpose was to avoid economical unviable investments and market distortions by Public Service Obligation (PSO) routes as sustainability was in focus. Special attention was given to the accessibility of peripheral and ultra peripheral regions. Neither demand data nor commercial operational data were available for a large number of the airports.

To investigate the passenger demand potential the SONAR360° tool was used for each airport separately. Beside air services for the external accessibility to the world also internal flight connections between the set of airports had been identified as well. Meanwhile the majority of routes are inaugurated either as commercial or PSO service.